City rental markets could soften more quickly than anticipated, under one possible scenario thrashed out by Reserve Bank of Australia board members at their last meeting on November 4-5.
Similarly, government energy rebates could weigh on inflation expectations and price indexation by more than expected.
"Members noted that this could warrant an easing in the cash rate target, but that they would need to observe more than one good quarterly inflation outcome to be confident that such a decline in inflation was sustainable," the minutes from the meeting said.
As already flagged by Governor Michele Bullock, the board did not explicitly consider the cases to hike nor cut but rather discussed various scenarios that would throw the base case off course.
The central bank has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent for over a year, a level it views as elevated enough to slow the economy and tackle price pressures.
Its economic forecasts have been downgraded slightly but it's still expected to take a long time - until June 2025 - to have the all-important trimmed mean brushing the top of the two-three per cent target band.
In the minutes released on Tuesday, the board said inflation had been above target for an "already lengthy period" so it had "minimal tolerance to accommodate a more prolonged period of high inflation, even if this occurred because of factors that constrained the economy's supply capacity".
The board also highlighted a scenario where "monetary policy might need to be adjusted" if "the stance of policy was not as restrictive as had been judged".
The board "agreed that it was important to pay close attention to potential signs of this, including developments in credit growth, banks' willingness to lend and growth in asset prices."
The final paragraph largely mirrored the November 5 post-meeting statement and press conference, with nothing ruled in nor out on its next cash rate move.
"Members agreed that it was important to convey that the board remained vigilant to upside risks to inflation," the minutes said.
Markets and economists broadly expect the next move by the central bank to be an interest rate cut.
Three of the big four banks are forecasting the easing to start in February, in contrast to National Australia Bank which last week pushed out its forecast to May, citing ongoing resilience in the labour market.
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